Comments on: The Real Contest Tomorrow: Bradley v. Cell Phone v. Ground http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/11/03/the-real-contest-tomorrow-bradley-v-cell-phone-v-ground/ Tue, 24 Nov 2009 03:02:28 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: emptywheel http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/11/03/the-real-contest-tomorrow-bradley-v-cell-phone-v-ground/comment-page-1/#comment-111379 emptywheel Tue, 04 Nov 2008 10:38:52 +0000 http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/11/03/the-real-contest-tomorrow-bradley-v-cell-phone-v-ground/#comment-111379 <p>True. But as I said (and I’m sorry I can’t find the link) Brandley’s OWN pollster has corrected some of the misunderstandings about the race–he says there was no Bradley effect, even with Bradley, based on his own polling.</p> <p>So in that case, the Bradley effect did not hold true across both internal and the one external poll that has been used to claim a Bradley effect.</p> True. But as I said (and I’m sorry I can’t find the link) Brandley’s OWN pollster has corrected some of the misunderstandings about the race–he says there was no Bradley effect, even with Bradley, based on his own polling.

So in that case, the Bradley effect did not hold true across both internal and the one external poll that has been used to claim a Bradley effect.

]]> By: cinnamonape http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/11/03/the-real-contest-tomorrow-bradley-v-cell-phone-v-ground/comment-page-1/#comment-111372 cinnamonape Tue, 04 Nov 2008 06:46:33 +0000 http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/11/03/the-real-contest-tomorrow-bradley-v-cell-phone-v-ground/#comment-111372 <p>“I wonder if republicans are on fire enough to wait in the long lines Rachel Maddow described last night. My republican co-workers are disgusted enough with Sarah, but Joe the Plumber has them to the point of not even wanting to vote.”</p> <p>Do we tell the Republicans on their blogs that no one is voting in the conservative districts…or that there are long lines? </p> <p>I say we go to little green footballs, redstate, freerepublic, etc. and report massive turnouts in Democratic areas<br /> “I’m disgusted! It seems that I’m the only relunctant McCain supporter in Bloomfield,IND and when I arrived at the polls in my heavily Obama polling area at 7AM there was already a line around the block! And all these folks were singing Kumbayaa songs and sharing coffee! It’s horrible! If it’s lower in the evening I’ll come back and vote for Ron Paul as a protest vote! Why should I wait hours in line to vote for a loser!”</p> <p>For the Republican precincts we can respond “Well that’s a Dim area. In my precinct there was no wait at all. I was the only one there at 8 AM…and chatted with the poll workers who seemed bored. They said I was their third voter since &AM. I told them I expected the big rush to come after 5 PM when people get out of work. Still where are all the retired people, or don’t they get up early?”</p> “I wonder if republicans are on fire enough to wait in the long lines Rachel Maddow described last night. My republican co-workers are disgusted enough with Sarah, but Joe the Plumber has them to the point of not even wanting to vote.”

Do we tell the Republicans on their blogs that no one is voting in the conservative districts…or that there are long lines?

I say we go to little green footballs, redstate, freerepublic, etc. and report massive turnouts in Democratic areas
“I’m disgusted! It seems that I’m the only relunctant McCain supporter in Bloomfield,IND and when I arrived at the polls in my heavily Obama polling area at 7AM there was already a line around the block! And all these folks were singing Kumbayaa songs and sharing coffee! It’s horrible! If it’s lower in the evening I’ll come back and vote for Ron Paul as a protest vote! Why should I wait hours in line to vote for a loser!”

For the Republican precincts we can respond “Well that’s a Dim area. In my precinct there was no wait at all. I was the only one there at 8 AM…and chatted with the poll workers who seemed bored. They said I was their third voter since &AM. I told them I expected the big rush to come after 5 PM when people get out of work. Still where are all the retired people, or don’t they get up early?”

]]> By: skippy http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/11/03/the-real-contest-tomorrow-bradley-v-cell-phone-v-ground/comment-page-1/#comment-111345 skippy Tue, 04 Nov 2008 02:53:48 +0000 http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/11/03/the-real-contest-tomorrow-bradley-v-cell-phone-v-ground/#comment-111345 <p>i believe it was matt stoller @ openleft who dismisses the entire concept of “the bradley effect,” saying that bradley campaign’s internal polls showed a tie right before the election. ie, the polls didn’t show a disconnect between what people said to pollsters and how they voted.</p> i believe it was matt stoller @ openleft who dismisses the entire concept of “the bradley effect,” saying that bradley campaign’s internal polls showed a tie right before the election. ie, the polls didn’t show a disconnect between what people said to pollsters and how they voted.

]]> By: masaccio http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/11/03/the-real-contest-tomorrow-bradley-v-cell-phone-v-ground/comment-page-1/#comment-111338 masaccio Tue, 04 Nov 2008 02:43:53 +0000 http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/11/03/the-real-contest-tomorrow-bradley-v-cell-phone-v-ground/#comment-111338 <p>You can vote a provisional ballot, which will be counted if the absentee ballot isn’t.</p> You can vote a provisional ballot, which will be counted if the absentee ballot isn’t.

]]> By: bobschacht http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/11/03/the-real-contest-tomorrow-bradley-v-cell-phone-v-ground/comment-page-1/#comment-111337 bobschacht Tue, 04 Nov 2008 02:42:32 +0000 http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/11/03/the-real-contest-tomorrow-bradley-v-cell-phone-v-ground/#comment-111337 <p>EW,<br /> Thanks for patience in pursuing this with me. I’m trying to understand where all of the hullabaloo about the “Bradley effect” went wrong. </p> <p>Now, first of all, Nate Silver does not say that the Bradly Effect <strong>never existed</strong>; instead, he is saying that “there’s no proof that the Bradley effect still exists.”</p> <p>He also cites a study by Hopkins that concluded that<br /><strong>Hopkins found that the Bradley effect did exist during the ’80s and early ’90s. But it dissipated sometime thereafter</strong></p> <p>I misread your comments on the Bradley Effect to imply that the whole idea of it was wrong to begin with.</p> <p>Bob in HI</p> EW,
Thanks for patience in pursuing this with me. I’m trying to understand where all of the hullabaloo about the “Bradley effect” went wrong.

Now, first of all, Nate Silver does not say that the Bradly Effect never existed; instead, he is saying that “there’s no proof that the Bradley effect still exists.”

He also cites a study by Hopkins that concluded that
Hopkins found that the Bradley effect did exist during the ’80s and early ’90s. But it dissipated sometime thereafter

I misread your comments on the Bradley Effect to imply that the whole idea of it was wrong to begin with.

Bob in HI

]]> By: masaccio http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/11/03/the-real-contest-tomorrow-bradley-v-cell-phone-v-ground/comment-page-1/#comment-111336 masaccio Tue, 04 Nov 2008 02:41:19 +0000 http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/11/03/the-real-contest-tomorrow-bradley-v-cell-phone-v-ground/#comment-111336 <p>I may have seen you there, handing out the pizzas, but I got directions from the tall guy. I’m from Nashville. I’ll be at that party.</p> I may have seen you there, handing out the pizzas, but I got directions from the tall guy. I’m from Nashville. I’ll be at that party.

]]> By: Hmmm http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/11/03/the-real-contest-tomorrow-bradley-v-cell-phone-v-ground/comment-page-1/#comment-111334 Hmmm Tue, 04 Nov 2008 02:40:34 +0000 http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/11/03/the-real-contest-tomorrow-bradley-v-cell-phone-v-ground/#comment-111334 <p>Huh. Wouldn’t that mean that you could mail your Absentee ballot in and go Early Vote in person on the same day? The AB wouldn’t have been received yet. Or is your name on the AB envelope checked against the “They Voted” roll from your polling place?</p> Huh. Wouldn’t that mean that you could mail your Absentee ballot in and go Early Vote in person on the same day? The AB wouldn’t have been received yet. Or is your name on the AB envelope checked against the “They Voted” roll from your polling place?

]]> By: timbo http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/11/03/the-real-contest-tomorrow-bradley-v-cell-phone-v-ground/comment-page-1/#comment-111325 timbo Tue, 04 Nov 2008 02:28:17 +0000 http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/11/03/the-real-contest-tomorrow-bradley-v-cell-phone-v-ground/#comment-111325 <p>What bothers me about all this is how America’s politicos worry much more about the accuracy of polls than they do about the appropriateness of actual policy is. We see the results in the war in Iraq and the unregulated financial system that has hurt the wealth of millions, if not billions, of people around the world. So, um, let’s worry a little less about the inaccuracy of polls and more about the inaccuracy of the idiots who caused us to pay more attention to who is winning…than what those self-same politicians are winning for.</p> What bothers me about all this is how America’s politicos worry much more about the accuracy of polls than they do about the appropriateness of actual policy is. We see the results in the war in Iraq and the unregulated financial system that has hurt the wealth of millions, if not billions, of people around the world. So, um, let’s worry a little less about the inaccuracy of polls and more about the inaccuracy of the idiots who caused us to pay more attention to who is winning…than what those self-same politicians are winning for.

]]> By: randiego http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/11/03/the-real-contest-tomorrow-bradley-v-cell-phone-v-ground/comment-page-1/#comment-111293 randiego Tue, 04 Nov 2008 01:59:04 +0000 http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/11/03/the-real-contest-tomorrow-bradley-v-cell-phone-v-ground/#comment-111293 <p>It seems intuitive to me that both conditions would exist:<br /> a) the voter who lies about voting for a black Democratic candidate because he doesn’t want to seem racist; and<br /> b) the voter who lies about voting for a white Republican candidate because he doesn’t want to be seen as ‘voting for the other team’.</p> It seems intuitive to me that both conditions would exist:
a) the voter who lies about voting for a black Democratic candidate because he doesn’t want to seem racist; and
b) the voter who lies about voting for a white Republican candidate because he doesn’t want to be seen as ‘voting for the other team’.

]]> By: emptywheel http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/11/03/the-real-contest-tomorrow-bradley-v-cell-phone-v-ground/comment-page-1/#comment-111285 emptywheel Tue, 04 Nov 2008 01:49:48 +0000 http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/11/03/the-real-contest-tomorrow-bradley-v-cell-phone-v-ground/#comment-111285 <p>Not really. Obviously, we’re assuming the pollsters are just recording what they’ve been told. BUt I’m saying if there is no evidence of the Bradley effect in polls (presumably because–using your model of 5 people lying in one way and 5 lying in the opposite way), there is no Bradley effect.</p> Not really. Obviously, we’re assuming the pollsters are just recording what they’ve been told. BUt I’m saying if there is no evidence of the Bradley effect in polls (presumably because–using your model of 5 people lying in one way and 5 lying in the opposite way), there is no Bradley effect.

]]>