Whoever takes the AG’s job will be faced quickly with dealing with a host of major fraud cases stemming from the economic melt-down. Congress itself will certainly be doing the hearings and pointing to potential targets. We’ve got one that is just emerging now in Minnesota — Hedge Fund Operator charged with Three Billion in Fraud, taking down a whole group of industries, including Sun Country Airlines which was forced into bankruptcy. Apparently cases like this are scattered everywhere. And yes, they will be handled by the USA for the most part, but many of these are international cases and Main Justice will have to engage. My own sense of what will return DoJ to health is a new focus on cases where large segments of the public have been harmed — properly preparing and winning some of these, and then with a new slate of personnel evolving a better culture. What’s hurt them has been fake cases — emphasis on voter fraud (which hardly exists) over emphasis on slightly potential over hyped terrorism cases, not having bright lines regarding politics and the policy of DoJ, and all those light weights from Regents University. I think Obama will be very sensitive to significant improvements at DoJ.

But I don’t think Gore wants a job. He has a whole new career as a public advocate, and in TV and in finance — and I see no reason why he should give any of it up. He can probably accomplish more with his independence and his potential for advocacy as anyone in semi-public life than he could in an official job. In fact, if Obama doesn’t seize opportunities, Gore can call him out — and I hope he does that if necessary. Just imagine the shivers that would go through the WH if it were announced “Gore is mounting another slide show!”

Janet Napolitano is the right, really almost perfect, choice for DOJ; so Obama will appoint Holder.

The way I work is add names for a position, and then add an underscore when I get reason to confirm the guess from an independent source.

Richard Clarke at Homeland Security. His deputy will probably be Jamie Lee Whit — an inside/outside play.

I think Obama will give Carolyn Kennedy a high position, either at DoJ or perhaps Interior. (remember, she has written two books on Constitutional Law and has done a huge behind the scenes organization job on the campaign)

He’ll keep Gates at DoD for perhaps 6 months or so — until the plan for leaving Iraq is inked. But the Deputy will be an Obama appointment likely to move up. (This morning’s news is interesting, Russia has announced they favor the extension of the Coalition Mandate through the UN for a few months as it would not be good to suddenly remove US forces Jan 1. This leaves to Obama the negotiation of a SOFA. Dan Schorr talked about it on NPR, with interesting historical parallels.) But the fact that Gates stays doesn’t mean Obama ultimately doesn’t have to appoint a Defense Team.

I think he really wants to appoint Richard Lugar at State — badly, and I think Lugar might actually be good at the job. Remember, he is the one who once flew off to Manila, and talked Marcos out of the country. Lugar is also an organization freak, nearly invented the idea of Metro Government when he was Mayor of Indianapolis. This would allow him to put Nunn in as Deputy Secretary for disarmament and non-proliferation, and this is core Obama agenda stuff, and absolutely critical to dealing with Iran issues. I think we see the return of Samantha Powers, either at State or as a specialized delegate to the UN dealing with Humanitarian issues. (She got canned for dissing Hillary’s campaign, and that’s now irrelevant.) She could head AID, for instance.

Obama’s top National Security Advisor has been Tony Lake, who, if you remember got scrubbed by the Republicans in 1996 when Clinton tried to name him to head CIA. So I see Lake moving to National Intelligence Director. (a little thumb in the eyeball). For the past year I have been off and on reading Larry Johnson’s stuff trying to figure what is really behind his Obama Hateful writings — I think it is Lake. Johnson was up to his eyeballs in scrubbing Lake’s nomination to CIA — why, not sure, but Lake fits Obama’s style. (as FDR said about someone, “I like the cut of his Jib.”) Oh yea, I see Steve Simon and Daniel Benjamin as appointees in National Security — WH staff or one of the agency positions. Susan Rice will have a major Foreign Policy position, and I will add the name Susan Eisenhower to the mix. She led the string of Foreign Policy Republicans moving to Obama.

I’ve got Robert Reich underscored half a dozen times but which Department??? Secretary of the Treasury? Commerce? don’t know — but an economic position for sure, and something to do with recovery. Maybe WH Staff??? Reich was not present during the Florida meeting on the bailout policy, but was authorized to do interviews as an Obama advisor both before and afterwards — I think he was hooked up by phone link to the Florida meeting. After the bill finally passed, he was shut down, no more interviews. Anything about bail-out comes from the Campaign press releases (not much) or from Congress. Very smart. Give McCain nothing to shoot at. Let him aim at Chris Dodd and Barney Frank.

Apparently the origin of Obama’s health care package is Jim Cooper of Tennessee. He is not beloved of Ted Kennedy, who is apparently “writing his bill” while getting his chemo — and Ted is also organizing big time. (Cooper supposedly is overprotective of the insurance industry.) I think it is going to be very difficult for Obama to put a Health leadership team together with this huge fracture — a fracture he can’t afford if he wants to accomplish something. I suggested to Amy Klobuchar that she consider putting one name in the mix, Mike Osterholm — I am not sure for what position, he was our State Epidemologist for years, and is close to Gore. Center for Disease Control maybe — perhaps something at NIH. Yes, Yes she says — a perfect appointment. HHS secretary — no, don’t think so, but we’ll see. Mike’s great skill is doing public health on TV in such a way that when he finishes explaining the problem, everyone lines up and does what is recommended. He gets trust based in understanding of the science behind public health practice.

Some suggest that former Governor Hunt of NC will get Secretary of Education — he seems to be in near total agreement with Obama on policy, and I’ve seen the suggestion in a number of independent places. The only other suggestion I’ve seen is Bill Daley — but while I am sure Obama will have a place for Bill Daley, I don’t think this is it. Bill Daley was on the same board at one point with Bill Ayres — and I suspect anyone connected with that will be out for an obvious appointment.

I’ve got a big Question Mark after Howard Dean. Obama really owes him big time in ways that are hard to count. He settled the mess with Hillary’s delegates to the convention masterfully, he created so much of the state by state base that merged into the Obama base campaign, and gave up ownership once the nomination was clear. But where to put him so he is inside the tent pissing out, instead of outside pissing in? Labor maybe? He might be go at things like mine safety and OSHA regulation. He might even be good at SEC — remember before he went to Medical School he was a stockbroker. I’ve got the same problem with Wesley Clark — great skills, but where to put him usefully? Deputy Secretary of Defense for Procurement??? And what about someone like Richard Holbrooke? Do you send him to Pakistan to straighten things out? Ambassador to Afghanistan?

Aside from Lugar and Cooper — I don’t see many appointments from Congress. Obama is going to keep his friends there to help along his program. At lower levels, he may appoint hill staffers with special expertise — but I don’t think many currently serving members will be appointed.

If Obama moves quickly on a Green Agenda — partially as job creation, partly as a component of a Global Warming Agenda, partially as an energy independence agenda — who gets Secretary of Energy? It is one of the most critical departments should Obama move on these matters — but it is also one of the most problem riddled departments in Government. It is totally hollowed out as a result of outsourcing everything to private companies, as of now it has two long term interests, Nuclear stuff, including its role in weapons — and the oil-coal interests. But it owns the National Labs, and if anything is going to go forward, they need new missions and roles. So do you go with a science/technology type, or a crackerjack administrator with good political creds? An awful lot depends on this appointment. Any ideas???

I’ll review my lists and see if I have additional guesses — but everyone can join this game.

I’d love to see your list.

These aren’t my kind of tea leaves, but I’m curious who you think.

I don’t mean wishes — I mean reality based guesses?

guess I can’t wish Diane Feinstein away then, huh ???

you’re usually more fun than this …

let’s see …

anybody got a list of blue dogs from states with a Democrat Governor ???

how about joezoe tortureman for ambassador to Iran (just go to Tehran now joe, we’ll get you a building soon …)

how about Ned Lamont

Paul Hackett

Harold Ford maybe

you can see where I’m going with this …

I have only one candidate for Chief of Staff — Tom Daschle. I think he will not be a “public” CoS, but a masterful behind the scenes organizer.

Podesta makes sense in Transition — he headed up for Clinton the hand over to Bush, thus he knows where things stood in 2001, and can quickly see all the changes and migrations of missions, 2001-2009. Doesn’t mean he will be in change of anything over time. Bush has been very clever, he has set up a transition structure that doesn’t match normal department and agency organization. Hopefully the mandate will be large enough for the Obama transition people to demand and get what they need without running headlong into this barrier. There was an interesting interview with Thomas Mann of Brookings and Norm Orenstein about this on NPR (or MPR, can’t remember) about ten days ago. They favored a constitutional amendment making the transition period much smaller — New President would take over by Thanksgiving. Not sure I agree — it still might take Florida a month to count their ballots. They were also exploring ways to get appointees in place when a President takes office.

Anyhow, who else has been trying to make guesses from the limited information available? I don’t mean wishes — I mean reality based guesses?

the movie “Blazing Saddles” comes to mind for some reason …

(wink)