This agression against our helpless naval vessels can not stand.

The first burden of proof is that these boats have ANYTHING to do with the Iranian government. Don’t some Iranians that are not part of their government own small fast little boats? Are these idiots going to try to go to war because some private citizens went out joy riding on a boat? Aren’t these international waters? I would take any of this fatal analysis seriously if anyone could point to the slightest indication that this was some kind of official action.

Would confirmation from the Iranian Foreign Ministry suffice?

BTW JimWhite you were right, I was wrong–there was in fact reference to them dropping boxes in front of the ships.

bmaz–I hope it is clear I’m not trying to sell “OMG the Izlamofashists are in ur Gulf explodin ur navi!!!”, but I can totally see how a US Navy commander in that situation would be ready to give the order to open fire. That said, I just now got to a computer where I could view the video, and the video is a lot less threatening that the written descriptions I’ve read. Although I wouldn’t leap to say it’s faked, it certainly is underwhelming.

By the same logic any car next to you on the highway could conceivably blow you up. That’s not a very good reason to start a war because someone could do something.

Geeze, I know a hell of a lot of Floridians that would’ve started WWIII by now with their antics if thats a threshold for war. In Florida waters they think you’re up to something if you’re NOT doing something stupid.

“BREAKING FAUX SPEWS…..drunken Florida sailboat captain starts war with Bermuda in spite of female passengers removing tops to show they are unarmed….Chimpy and Darth nuke Iran in retaliation.”

The USN is not entirely without resources they do have smaller quicker ships and some very fast and nasty boats. It is hard to know what the exact “force package” those ships were riding with so we can only guess what evil lurked in the heart of the Senior Officer who was commanding.

I hate to break it to all you CTs out there but ship-to-ship radio communications really, really stink. It is not unusual for transmission to be unnaturally high, to be garbled, and to sound like they are being filtered through a bathtub. Ship-to-ship radios are not exactly audiophile equipment. Best guess is the Iranians were broadcasting on the very cluttered channel used for routine shipping chatter- Big Grey is always listening in so as not to go bump in the night with the Merchant Seamen.

It looks like the Iranians got a little frisky trying to test Big Grey’s defense tactics. The test became a bit too close for the USN’s comfort and they were just about to slice, dice, and make Julian fries out of the Iranians when the Revolutionary Guardsmen decided that discretion was the better part of valor and broke off.

The question is :are those speedboats really Iranian? If so why were they playing a game of chicken with Big Grey? Did the USN do something to irritate the Iranians? (maybe a little provocation with our SEAL teams?) Or maybe the Rev Guards were just showing what a Pain in the a** they could be.

While the mixing of sound and video for public release was a bad move on the Pentagon’s part; it is much more likely a typical bureaucratic screw-up than anything nefarious. The military really doesn’t have the time to be faking videos gentle reader they have got an occupation that is totally going down the crapper in Iraq and a war in Afghanistan that isn’t going too swimmingly either. They have a full plate guys and gals.

Look if Bush-Cheney and crew really wanted to use this as an excuse for war, the Tomahawks would already be flying and those speedboats would be flotsam and jetsam by now. The real danger is that Cheney can now start pushing for his jolly little war again with the excuse of keeping the shipping lanes clear as his justification. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail- but with Bush one never knows.

That sure does make it sound like the Iranians were trying to provoke a reaction from the US in the Strait of Hormuz.

On the other hand, last month here’s what the Admiral had to say about the Iranians and the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. Naval Central Command, headquartered in Bahrain, has pledged to keep the international waterway open at all costs, regularly moving aircraft carrier strike groups in and out of the Gulf and drilling on Iran’s doorstep.

In December, Vice Admiral Kevin Cosgriff, head of U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, called Iran’s gesturing on the strait irresponsible and intimidating.

“I wake up thinking about Iran, I go to bed thinking about Iran,” he said

Now that sounds provocative, as well. Particularly since most people don’t take Iran’s braggadocio about closing the Strait very seriously.

…[A]nalysts say the probability of Iran attempting to block the strait is low — even the U.S. military says there is a slim chance of it happening.

“Iran is by far the most dependent for exports of its hydrocarbons through the strait. So there is a striking illogic in this,” said Richard Schofield, an expert in international boundaries at King’s College in London.

In case you are missing the point, let me spell it out for you: The US responds to a low probability event with bellicose rhetoric and aggressive action, which, in and of itself, has a high probability of triggering a confrontation which could provide the causi belli which the Cheneyites are looking for to attack Iran. That sounds like a plan to me.

Fortunately, Sunday’s event didn’t cross the line which would have triggered an armed response, but it has been put to use as fodder for agitprop by the Bush administration. The next time we may not be so luck and Cheney may get the war he’s looking for.

The post ends with a picture of Admiral Cardiff briefing Cheney last May during the latter’s visit to the Middle East.